Key Notes
- Bitwise models Bitcoin at $1.6 million by 2036 in its base case and $3.67 million in its bull case.
- The base case assumes 34.3% compound annual growth, supported by institutional adoption and store-of-value demand.
- The report still expects high volatility and identifies regulatory, adoption, quantum computing and AI-related risks.
Bitwise’s new long-term Bitcoin outlook puts its bullish 2036 scenario at $3.67 million per coin, while its base case reaches about $1.6 million. The asset manager expects institutional buying, limited new supply and demand for stores of value to support the next decade’s returns.
Its October 28 release summarizes the 2027 Bitcoin Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions. The underlying report sets out three illustrative scenarios, each dependent on how widely Bitcoin is adopted.
Three Scenarios for Bitcoin in 2036
| Bitwise Scenario | 2036 BTC Price | Projected Annual Growth |
|---|---|---|
| Bear | $130,686 | 4.6% |
| Base | $1,599,766 | 34.3% |
| Bull | $3,667,911 | 46.0% |
The growth rates are compound annual estimates calculated from the report’s September 30, 2026 reference price of $83,557. They are not returns measured from today’s market price, and the 2036 targets do not describe a smooth annual climb.
Even the bear scenario assumes a higher terminal price than that starting point. It is the model’s lower-adoption case, not a guaranteed minimum or a limit on losses. Bitwise’s disclosures acknowledge that investors could lose their entire investment.
The Model Depends on a Much Larger Store-of-Value Market
Bitwise estimates Bitcoin’s future value by projecting the size of markets it could serve and the share it could capture. It divides the resulting value by the full long-term supply of 21 million BTC, including coins that will not yet have been mined in 2036.
A major input is the combined gold-and-Bitcoin store-of-value market. The model grows it from $31.1 trillion to $109.8 trillion, extending its historical growth trend. Bitcoin’s assumed share reaches 25% in the base case and 50% in the bull case, compared with 2.5% in the bear case.
The framework also includes institutional portfolios, emerging-market currencies, offshore wealth, government reserves, corporate treasuries and remittances. These are adoption assumptions, rather than signed investment commitments.
Institutional Allocations Could Bring Trillions in Demand
Citing Boston Consulting Group, Bitwise puts institutional investment assets at roughly $147 trillion. Allocations of 1%–5% would correspond to approximately $1.5 trillion–$7.4 trillion of Bitcoin purchases in its investment thesis.
The separate valuation table adjusts the starting institutional pool to $139.7 trillion to account for gold already held by institutions, then projects its growth to $303.5 trillion by 2036. The report assumes a 1% Bitcoin share of that future pool in the base case and 5% in the bull case. The inflow illustration and terminal-price calculation therefore use different asset bases.
Bitwise links that prospective demand to constrained issuance and concerns about currency debasement. Its macroeconomic section uses U.S. federal debt of $40.2 trillion as of September 30, 2026, arguing that rising debt and interest costs could increase demand for Bitcoin and gold. That remains the manager’s economic thesis.
Higher Expected Returns Come With Higher Volatility
The report compares its 34.3% Bitcoin return assumption with 7.8% for hedge funds, 6.7% for U.S. equities, 5.5% for gold and 5.0% for U.S. bonds. It also models Bitcoin’s annualized volatility at 27.8%, the highest among the asset classes in its comparison.
Bitwise develops the Bitcoin projections itself. The traditional-asset figures are simple averages of forecasts from JPMorgan, PGIM, BlackRock and Vanguard, using differing indexes and time horizons of five to ten years. The report describes that comparison as approximate.
The outlook extends the argument in our earlier Hougan coverage: a broader investor base could reduce volatility over time. Lower volatility would still leave room for substantial declines.
Cycles May Weaken, While Technology Risks Remain
Bitwise expects Bitcoin’s familiar four-year cycle to become less pronounced without necessarily disappearing. That long-term assumption differs from Galaxy’s cycle call, which identifies a possible June bottom using a conditional weekly-trend signal.
The report also identifies regulatory reversals, uncertain adoption and technological disruption as risks. It warns that advances in quantum computing or AI-assisted mathematics could threaten existing cryptography, making future upgrades and wallet migration important.
Those are potential future threats, not evidence that Bitcoin keys have already been broken. Our dormant-wallet report examined the same distinction between observed coin movements and unproven claims of a cryptographic attack.
Disclaimer: CoinScreamer is an independent media brand owned and operated by NuvexMedia LLC, publishing news, research, and market insights on digital assets and related technologies. NuvexMedia LLC invests in and collaborates with companies across the digital asset, blockchain, and technology sectors. These relationships do not influence CoinScreamer’s editorial coverage, and the publication maintains full editorial independence to provide accurate, timely, and objective information. © 2025 NuvexMedia LLC. All rights reserved. This content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered legal, tax, investment, financial, or other professional advice.
