Key Notes
- Galaxy believes Bitcoin bottomed in June, based on its October 22 research.
- It counted five weekly closes above the 50-week average through October 18; the report quotes the average at $76,540.
- A weekly break below the average unrecovered within a month would undermine the call.
Galaxy Research believes Bitcoin’s bear market ended in June, according to Alex Thorn’s October 22 report.
It records five weekly closes above the 50-week average through October 18, after 44 weeks below. The report’s reference value for the average was $76,540.
A Recovery Signal, With a Condition Attached
Galaxy’s tripwire is a weekly close below the average without a recovery within a month. The dollar figure is the report’s dated reading; a moving average changes with subsequent prices.
A weekly closing test differs from an intraday decline. A price can briefly cross a line during trading and finish the week above it. The recovery window also matters: describing any single dip as invalidation would remove part of the condition.
Fidelity’s indicator guide explains that a simple moving average smooths a specified sequence of prices. Longer windows introduce more lag. The line summarizes past observations rather than predicting the next trade.
That makes a sustained move above an average a different observation from identifying the exact low as it happens. A market-bottom thesis can be supported by a later trend signal while remaining open to failure.
A Shallower Decline and Less Old-Coin Activity
Galaxy calculates a 53% maximum drawdown, versus 77–93% in earlier cycles. Coins dormant for at least five years moved at 34,000 BTC monthly in 2026, compared with 67,000 in 2024.
Those are two different measurements: a peak-to-trough price decline and the rate at which a defined group of coins became active. They should not be combined into an estimate of current selling.
An old coin moving on-chain does not, by itself, identify a sale, its execution price or a change in beneficial owner. A monthly average also does not show an identical amount moving every month.
Spot Demand Provides Another Test
The bullish interpretation sits alongside more cautious demand analysis. CoinScreamer’s October 20 CryptoQuant coverage described renewed accumulation among holders of 1,000–10,000 BTC, while US spot buying remained weak.
That report separated potential buying capacity from actual purchases. Higher exchange stablecoin reserves could support future trades, but did not establish that the funds had already bought Bitcoin.
The two perspectives address different questions. Galaxy’s call concerns where the cycle may have bottomed; demand indicators test whether fresh buyers can sustain the subsequent recovery. Neither a quieter seller cohort nor a recovered chart level guarantees uninterrupted gains.
Disclaimer: CoinScreamer is an independent media brand owned and operated by NuvexMedia LLC, publishing news, research, and market insights on digital assets and related technologies. NuvexMedia LLC invests in and collaborates with companies across the digital asset, blockchain, and technology sectors. These relationships do not influence CoinScreamer’s editorial coverage, and the publication maintains full editorial independence to provide accurate, timely, and objective information. © 2025 NuvexMedia LLC. All rights reserved. This content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered legal, tax, investment, financial, or other professional advice.
