Bitcoin Whales Turn to Accumulation, but Spot Demand Remains Weak
CryptoQuant contributors find renewed accumulation among 1,000–10,000 BTC holders, while weak US spot demand keeps a sustained recovery uncertain.
Key Notes
- The 1,000–10,000 BTC cohort’s rolling 60-day accumulation reading turned positive.
- Binance’s cited USDT reserve increase covers the Tron network, not all chains.
- Weak US spot demand leaves the case for a lasting Bitcoin recovery unconfirmed.
Bitcoin holders with balances of 1,000–10,000 BTC have moved back into net accumulation, but weak spot buying still limits the case for a lasting recovery, according to analysis published on CryptoQuant.
In a Quicktake report published late on October 19, contributor XWIN Japan described a market moving toward a possible bottom as selling pressure eases. The assessment remains conditional: fewer sellers are not enough without stronger demand for Bitcoin itself.
The whale reading crosses zero
The cohort’s rolling 60-day net accumulation indicator improved from minus 62,600 BTC to plus 5,230 BTC. A separate analysis by CryptoQuant contributor Amr Taha places those readings on September 27 and October 19, respectively.
That is a 67,830 BTC improvement in the indicator, not evidence that whales bought that amount during a single session. Each reading covers a moving 60-day window. Positive territory indicates net accumulation for the measured group, while changes in which addresses fall into a balance band can also affect cohort comparisons.
This group is distinct from holders above 10,000 BTC discussed in CoinScreamer’s earlier report. Improving behavior among one holder band does not establish that all large investors are accumulating together.
More USDT represents capacity, not completed purchases
The reserve figure also needs a narrower definition. Taha identifies the increase from roughly $790 million to $1.76 billion as Binance’s USDT reserves on the Tron network, measured between October 7 and October 18. It is not the exchange’s total USDT balance across every blockchain.
The rise amounts to approximately $970 million, or 123%. It provides more potential trading liquidity, but does not show that the funds have been used to buy Bitcoin. Stablecoins held on an exchange can remain idle or support other trading activity.
US spot demand still needs to improve
XWIN Japan cited a Coinbase Premium Index near minus 0.1416% and weekly net exchange inflows of 8,428 BTC. CryptoQuant’s metric guide defines the premium as the percentage price difference between Coinbase’s BTC-dollar market and Binance’s BTC-USDT market. The negative reading signals weaker relative buying pressure on Coinbase, rather than measuring every US investor’s demand. Net exchange inflows mean more BTC arrived than left; they do not prove that those coins were sold.
The short-term-holder spent output profit ratio, or STH-SOPR, was around 0.9982. The measure compares the value of recently held coins when they move with their value when previously acquired. Below one indicates losses on average; this reading is only slightly below breakeven.
For XWIN Japan, sustained spot demand, a firmer Coinbase premium and STH-SOPR holding above one would strengthen the recovery case. The current signals support the possibility of a bottom forming, without confirming that the bottom is already in.
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