In a resounding return to form, the US spot Bitcoin ETF market captured a staggering $532.21 million in net inflows on Monday, May 4, 2026. The surge in institutional appetite coincided with Bitcoin (BTC) reclaiming the critical $80,000 psychological threshold, as global markets reacted to a fragile ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran.
BlackRock and Fidelity Lead the Charge
The “Big Two” of the ETF world dominated the day’s activity. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) led the pack with $335.49 million in daily inflows, while Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) followed closely with $184.57 million. Morgan Stanley’s Bitcoin ETF (MSBT) was the only other fund to see green on the ledger, adding $12.16 million.
This performance extends a three-day winning streak for the funds, which had previously pulled in nearly $630 million last Friday. The sudden influx of capital marks a sharp reversal from late April, when the market weathered a brutal three-day stretch of redemptions that saw nearly $491 million exit the ecosystem.
Post-Ceasefire Liquidity Squeeze
The price action on Monday saw Bitcoin climb to an intraday high of $81,029, its strongest performance in more than three months. Analysts at Bitunix attribute this rally to a “post-ceasefire recovery in risk appetite.” The move above $80,000 was accelerated by a concentrated short-side liquidity squeeze in the $79,500–$81,000 range, forcing traders betting against the asset to buy back their positions, further fueling the upward momentum.
Technical indicators now suggest that the $77,000–$78,000 zone has transformed from resistance into primary support for leveraged long positions. However, while the technicals look bullish, the geopolitical landscape remains a primary driver of volatility.
Geopolitical Tensions and Macro Pressures
Despite the ceasefire, nerves remain frayed. The US military recently launched “Operation Freedom,” deploying 15,000 personnel to secure shipping lanes through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has already issued warnings that this troop movement could violate the current ceasefire framework, a development that could send Bitcoin, often viewed as a geopolitical hedge, back into a high-volatility state.
“Overall, BTC is no longer being driven solely by internal crypto-market sentiment,” Bitunix analysts noted. “We have entered a phase jointly priced by ‘macro events + liquidity structure.’” Beyond the Middle East, investors are looking toward the upcoming US Non-Farm Payrolls report and Federal Reserve commentary. High inflation expectations could prompt the Fed to keep rates elevated, potentially squeezing crypto valuations later this month.
Ethereum Joins the Rebound
The recovery wasn’t limited to the “orange coin.” Spot Ether (ETH) ETFs recorded $61.29 million in net inflows on Monday, following a massive $101.18 million session on Friday. This momentum has pushed cumulative net inflows for Ether ETFs past the $12 billion mark, signaling that institutional confidence is returning to the broader digital asset class after a rocky start to the second quarter.
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