Key Notes
- The Federal Reserve held rates at 3.75%–4.00% in a 10–2 vote on October 28.
- Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack dissented in favor of another quarter-point rate increase.
- Bitcoin traded near $81,000 after intraday volatility, while December’s policy decision remains open.
Bitcoin traded around $81,000 after the Federal Reserve held its benchmark interest-rate range at 3.75%–4.00% on October 28. The 10–2 decision paused tightening after September’s rate increase, but two policymakers wanted another hike.
The Fed’s statement, released at 18:00 UTC, identifies Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack as the dissenters. Both preferred a quarter-percentage-point increase, rather than a cut.
Bitcoin Gives Back Some of Its Earlier Rise
Bitcoin Magazine described volatile trading around the announcement, including moves toward $81,700 and $80,500 before a recovery toward $81,000. The earlier move above $81,500 should be distinguished from the price later in the session.
Market update at 21:41 UTC on October 28: a Coinbase spot quote put BTC at $81,118.24. This later observation updates the market snapshot following the initial policy announcement; it is an exchange-level quote, not a fixed price across all trading venues.
Coinbase’s rolling 24-hour market data, checked at the same time, showed a high of $81,715.01 and a low of $80,270.68. That window includes trading before the Fed decision, so the full range cannot be treated as its immediate impact.
Two Dissenters Wanted Higher Rates
The October hold follows the Fed’s unanimous September 16 decision to raise the target range by a quarter point to its current level. The latest split shows disagreement over whether to tighten again immediately, rather than support for easing among the dissenters.
The committee now describes economic activity as expanding at a strong pace, compared with a solid pace in September. It cites resilient domestic spending, robust investment and strong productivity growth, alongside little change in unemployment.
Inflation remains elevated. The statement says more information will help officials determine the appropriate policy stance as they seek a return to their 2% inflation goal. It does not commit the committee to a specific decision at its next meeting.
Warsh Keeps the Focus on Inflation
At the subsequent press conference, Chair Kevin Warsh said bringing inflation down remained the Fed’s responsibility and that politics played no role in the decision, CryptoPotato reported. Asked about the timing of another increase, he emphasized the broader policy strategy rather than a particular date or data point.
For Bitcoin, the distinction is between the relief of avoiding an immediate hike and the still-unresolved path of borrowing costs. A pause leaves the policy rate unchanged; it does not establish that the inflation problem has been resolved or that a rate cut is next.
Our October 15 PPI report examined an earlier stronger-than-expected producer-price release and Bitcoin’s initial decline. Those historical figures provide context for the inflation debate, rather than new data released at this meeting.
December Is the Next Scheduled Policy Test
The Fed’s calendar puts the next scheduled meeting on December 8–9, with a new Summary of Economic Projections. The October vote leaves that outcome open.
Crypto demand will also matter independently of monetary policy. In our earlier Wintermute coverage, the market maker identified steadier long-term Treasury yields and renewed ETF inflows as conditions for a sustained recovery. Wednesday’s rate hold addresses the immediate policy decision, but does not by itself establish either condition.
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