Key Notes
- Wintermute says a sustained crypto recovery needs calmer long-term Treasury yields and a return to net inflows into spot crypto ETFs.
- Bitcoin and Ether funds lost a combined $1.22 billion during October 5–9, according to CoinScreamer’s calculations from Farside Investors data.
- September CPI is due on October 14, with the Fed minutes showing most participants considered another rate increase likely to be appropriate by year-end.
Wintermute says a sustained cryptocurrency recovery needs two developments: stabilization in long-term US Treasury yields and a return to net inflows into spot crypto exchange-traded funds. The market maker’s assessment follows a week of withdrawals from Bitcoin and Ether funds and renewed concern about further Federal Reserve tightening.
In its October 12 market update, the firm’s OTC desk identified the 30-year Treasury yield and Bitcoin’s behavior around $82,500 as warning signals. These are conditions in Wintermute’s trading outlook, rather than a prediction that either level will determine the market’s next move.
Wintermute’s weekly market update examines Treasury yields, ETF demand and the crypto outlook.
Bitcoin and Ether ETFs Lose $1.22 Billion in a Week
Farside Investors’ daily Bitcoin ETF data show net withdrawals of $678.9 million across the five US trading sessions from October 5–9. The largest negative day was October 7, when approximately $484.9 million left the funds, followed by $244.1 million on October 8.
The week was not uniformly negative. October 6 brought $118.8 million in net inflows, and October 9 added $21.1 million. Those positive sessions were insufficient to offset the withdrawals on the other three days.
Farside’s Ether fund figures show net outflows on all five sessions, totaling $542.2 million. Combined withdrawals from the two groups reached approximately $1.22 billion, based on CoinScreamer’s calculations from the displayed daily totals.
The reversal follows the earlier inflow trend covered by CoinScreamer, when Bitcoin funds attracted roughly $6.19 billion across August and September. Positive monthly balances did not prevent individual redemption days, and the latest weekly result shows that institutional access through ETFs does not guarantee continuous buying.
Net fund flows also differ from trading volume. ETF shares can change hands between investors without an equivalent new allocation to the underlying fund. The figures measure a specific demand channel, not all capital entering or leaving cryptocurrency markets.
The Fed’s Rate Outlook Keeps Bonds in Focus
The Federal Reserve’s September 15–16 meeting minutes, released on October 7, show that most participants considered another increase in the policy-rate target likely to be appropriate by year-end. They also emphasized that future decisions would depend on incoming information and the balance of risks.
At that September meeting, the Fed raised its target range by a quarter percentage point to 3.75%–4.00%. The minutes therefore describe a discussion after an actual tightening decision, while the additional increase remains an assessment of what might be needed.
The document links the rise in Treasury yields to several influences, including stronger economic data, expectations for monetary policy, geopolitical developments and heavy borrowing associated with artificial-intelligence infrastructure. Long-term yields consequently reflect more than the next scheduled Fed decision.
Participants highlighted the risk that sustained energy-price increases could spread into broader inflation. They generally viewed inflation risks as tilted upward, even as the staff projected that price pressures would ease over time. That distinction helps explain why policymakers could expect eventual disinflation while still considering another increase.
Two Levels in Wintermute’s Outlook
Wintermute said it would become more cautious if the 30-year Treasury yield rose above 5.64%, the September 30 level cited in its report, or if Bitcoin repeatedly failed around $82,500. Neither threshold is an official policy trigger or a guaranteed support or resistance level.
The desk’s weekly performance comparison showed Bitcoin down 3.2% and Ether down 7.0%, while the S&P 500 gained 1.2%. Those figures describe the period reviewed in the note, rather than current rolling 24-hour returns.
The distinction between a rebound and a lasting recovery is visible in our October 9 coverage. Bitcoin had recovered toward $83,000 after the preceding sell-off, but that price snapshot did not establish that the fund-flow trend or interest-rate backdrop had improved.
September CPI Is the Next Scheduled Test
The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ release calendar schedules September consumer-price data for Wednesday, October 14, at 08:30 Eastern time, or 12:30 UTC. The release had not occurred when Wintermute published its report.
The data will provide another reading on inflation before the Fed’s next meeting on October 27–28. It cannot, by itself, establish the committee’s decision: the minutes explicitly leave the policy outlook dependent on the wider information available at each meeting.
Wintermute’s recovery case is therefore conditional. Calmer bond yields would address one part of its concern, while renewed net ETF subscriptions would provide separate evidence that demand through listed funds was returning.
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