Willy Woo has highlighted a possible Bitcoin cycle top of $241,000–$413,000 in 2028 after running 10,000 simulated price paths. The analyst shared the results on October 26, stressing that the exercise is a simulation rather than his prediction.
Woo described the model as optimistic and said outcomes between its 28th and 50th percentiles looked reasonable to him. The quoted price band therefore represents his selected portion of the modeled outcomes, rather than the minimum and maximum across all 10,000 paths.
It’s a simulation, NOT my prediction.
— Willy Woo (@willywoo) October 26, 2026
In a methodology post, Woo said the Monte Carlo model generates random moves from Bitcoin’s historical price distribution. He used data between the 2018 and 2022 market bottoms, incorporated the asset’s position in its market cycle and applied power-law scaling to reflect diminishing returns.
Woo selected the 28th-percentile path because it resembled a historical pattern in which the next market bottom meets the previous cycle’s top. That resemblance depends on the model’s assumptions continuing to hold; it does not establish a price floor or guarantee that the pattern will repeat.
The exercise uses a different approach from Matt Crosby’s $275,000 scenario, recently covered by CoinScreamer. Crosby calculated an implied valuation if Bitcoin captured 1% of estimated global capital, while Woo’s simulation explores hypothetical price paths drawn from historical trading behavior.
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