Donald Trump has intensified warnings against Iran, threatening military strikes on key infrastructure if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened by an imposed deadline. The ultimatum follows weeks of disruption to one of the world’s most critical oil transit routes, which handles roughly 20% to 30% of global oil flows.
In recent statements, Trump suggested that US military action could target Iranian power plants and other strategic assets, escalating tensions after earlier strikes reportedly hit infrastructure such as bridges. He also indicated that while negotiations remain possible, a failure to reach an agreement could lead to broader military intervention, including potential control over oil resources.
Iranian officials have rejected the ultimatum, warning of retaliatory action against US-linked infrastructure if attacked. Government representatives emphasized that any strike would be met “in kind,” underscoring the risk of further escalation. Authorities in Tehran have also signaled that the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed for now, with discussions ongoing around imposing transit tolls as compensation for damage caused during the standoff.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has already sent shockwaves through global energy markets. Oil prices have surged in response to supply concerns, with Brent crude oil trading above $109 per barrel. The disruption has heightened uncertainty across financial markets, particularly as geopolitical risks remain elevated.
Investor sentiment has also been impacted in the crypto sector. On the prediction platform Polymarket, the probability of a US invasion of Iran surged to around 63%, reflecting growing concern among market participants. Rising geopolitical instability has historically weighed on risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
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