Roughly 70% of Polymarket’s 1.7 million trading addresses have recorded realized losses, while fewer than 30% generated profits, according to analysis by blockchain researcher DeFi Oasis. The data shows extreme concentration, with less than 0.04% of addresses capturing more than 70% of total realized gains, equivalent to about $3.7 billion.
Most profitable participants earned relatively small amounts, with nearly a quarter of all addresses making under $1,000 while accounting for less than 1% of total profits. By contrast, just 668 addresses reported profits above $1 million, representing the majority of aggregate gains. Losses were similarly widespread, with more than 1.1 million addresses recording modest negative returns.
The findings mirror patterns seen in traditional financial and derivatives markets, where sophisticated traders and automated strategies tend to outperform retail participants. Despite this imbalance, Polymarket activity continues to grow as prediction markets draw increased attention from regulators, exchanges, and institutional players.
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