Bitcoin pushed above $65,000 during early trading on August 10 before slipping back below the level, extending its multi-day recovery as investors reassessed the US interest rate outlook. BTC was trading near $64,955 at the time of writing, up 0.3% over 24 hours and 3.4% over seven days, after reaching an intraday high of $65,363.
The price action leaves traders focused on the nearest scheduled macroeconomic catalyst. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release July consumer inflation data at 8:30 a.m. ET on Wednesday, August 12. This report follows unexpectedly weak employment figures from Friday, which reduced expectations that the Federal Reserve would need to raise interest rates again in the near term.
According to official BLS data, the US economy lost 23,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in July, while the unemployment rate held near 4.1%. In addition, May payroll growth was revised down by 66,000 and June by 37,000, removing a cumulative 103,000 jobs from the two previous estimates. Meanwhile, average hourly earnings rose 3.2% from a year earlier.
Bitcoin moved above $65,000 after the employment report as rate expectations shifted. Following Friday’s payroll reaction, BTC initially gained almost 2% as investors interpreted weaker hiring as a signal that the central bank would face less pressure to tighten monetary policy. That move has largely held, although $65,000 has not yet solidified into firm structural support.
The policy backdrop within the central bank remains divided. The Federal Reserve held its target rate range at 3.50% to 3.75% on July 29, but three voting officials preferred a 25 basis point increase, according to its statement. The central bank also noted that inflation remained above its 2% long-term goal, driven in part by persistent energy-related supply pressures.
Institutional Demand and Spot ETF Inflows
Institutional interest expanded as Bitcoin approached key overhead resistance levels. SoSoValue reported $854 million in net inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs between August 3 and August 7, with BlackRock’s IBIT accounting for approximately $694 million of that aggregate total. The figures marked a clear reversal from the weaker fund flows recorded toward the end of July.
A minor divergence exists across primary ETF tracking datasets due to varying provider reporting methods. While SoSoValue attributes an $854 million weekly aggregate to spot products, alternative reporting from Farside Investors recorded daily totals of $170.1 million, $211.5 million, $244.4 million, $137.6 million, and $101.7 million across the same five sessions, summing to approximately $865.3 million.
This growth in demand followed several sessions in which consistent ETF buying failed to generate an immediate upward breakout. On August 7, Bitcoin remained range-bound near $64,200 even after funds recorded four consecutive sessions of net positive inflows. Friday’s additional fund additions extended that streak while BTC continued testing the same resistance area.
Technical Indicators Point to Critical $65,800 Barrier
Although price structure has improved since Bitcoin traded near $62,500 at the start of last week, the market has repeatedly struggled to clear the region between $65,000 and $66,000. Derivative and liquidation analysis previously identified this same zone as containing a heavy concentration of short liquidation liquidity, particularly between $65,000 and $65,500.
Technical momentum indicators currently paint a moderately positive picture. The daily Relative Strength Index stood at 55.07, positioning it above its moving average of 50.44 and the neutral 50 threshold. This reading points to moderate bullish momentum, giving buyers a slight advantage while remaining well below overbought territory. Concurrently, the Awesome Oscillator printed a positive reading of 664.19, reflecting improving momentum, though its relatively small histogram bars indicate gradual consolidation rather than an aggressive breakout.
Market analyst Michaël van de Poppe highlighted $65,800 as the primary technical hurdle. In an August 9 post, he identified $65,800 as a critical level and noted that a clean breakout could open a path toward at least $73,700, citing bullish divergence across longer-duration RSI and MACD readings. These targets represent technical projections rather than confirmed price guarantees, and Bitcoin must first clear the immediate overhead supply.
Forward Outlook and Upcoming Catalyst Risk
Wednesday’s Consumer Price Index report remains the dominant market catalyst in the immediate term. For context, June consumer prices fell 0.4% from May while rising 3.5% annually, with core CPI remaining flat on a monthly basis and up 2.6% year-over-year. Economists surveyed by Reuters project July headline inflation to ease to an annual rate of 3.4% and core inflation to slow to 2.5%.
Broader financial markets are also evaluating renewed energy pressures and shifting yield curves. Brent crude rose 1% to $84.40 on Monday amid ongoing transport uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, while the US 10-year Treasury yield traded near 4.66%. Futures markets currently reflect a 44% probability of a September Federal Reserve rate increase, down from 67% reported one week earlier.
A hotter-than-expected CPI reading could rebuild expectations for additional monetary tightening, putting renewed selling pressure on risk assets. Conversely, a softer inflation print would reinforce the dovish shift traders drew from Friday’s employment report, though it would not automatically guarantee a sustained Bitcoin breakout. With the Federal Reserve’s next policy meeting scheduled for September 15 to September 16, policymakers will evaluate several additional data releases before determining whether interest rates should change.
For Bitcoin, the immediate short-term test remains tightly defined around holding its recovery above $65,000 while attempting to overcome resistance near $65,800. Wednesday’s inflation data will provide the next crucial signal on whether the macroeconomic environment supports an upward continuation or sends traders back toward the lower boundary of Bitcoin’s recent trading range
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