Key Notes
- Bitcoin closed October higher in 10 of the 13 completed years from 2013 through 2025, supporting the month’s widely followed Uptober reputation.
- October gains averaged about 19.9%, while losses in 2014, 2018 and 2025 show that the seasonal pattern has clear exceptions.
- Lookonchain’s five-rally observation dates to 2024, with this year’s outlook shaped by current ETF demand and the October 27–28 Fed meeting.
Bitcoin finished October higher in 10 of the 13 completed years from 2013 through 2025, giving the month one of the cryptocurrency’s most closely watched seasonal records. The pattern behind the “Uptober” nickname is drawing fresh attention as investors assess whether this year’s recovery can continue.
A CNBC host highlighted the same three-loss record in a clip shared by Bitcoin Magazine on October 2. The seasonal argument is supported by the historical results, although those figures describe a defined sample rather than Bitcoin’s entire trading history.
Lookonchain has also linked October with major rallies. In an October 1, 2024 post, the onchain analytics account identified five past bull markets that it said began during the month. That observation is historical context for the current discussion, rather than a new forecast issued this October.
Historically, 5 bull markets all started in October! What about October this year?
— Lookonchain (@lookonchain) October 1, 2024
What the Completed October Record Shows
CoinScreamer’s calculations from CoinGlass’s monthly returns put the average October gain across 2013–2025 at approximately 19.9%, with a median of 14.7%. The calculation excludes the unfinished October 2026 reading, keeping completed months separate from the current month.
The strongest October in that sample was 2013, when Bitcoin rose 60.79%. Other substantial gains included 47.81% in 2017, 39.93% in 2021 and 28.52% in 2023. Those large advances help explain why October features so prominently in bullish market commentary.
The losing years were 2014, 2018 and 2025. CoinGlass records declines of 12.95%, 3.83% and 3.69%, respectively. The 2025 result ended a run of six positive Octobers from 2019 through 2024.
| Year | October return |
|---|---|
| 2013 | +60.79% |
| 2014 | -12.95% |
| 2015 | +33.49% |
| 2016 | +14.71% |
| 2017 | +47.81% |
| 2018 | -3.83% |
| 2019 | +10.17% |
| 2020 | +27.70% |
| 2021 | +39.93% |
| 2022 | +5.56% |
| 2023 | +28.52% |
| 2024 | +10.76% |
| 2025 | -3.69% |
The figures also distinguish a strong average from a uniform result. October 2022 gained 5.56%, substantially less than the largest rallies. Positive months varied widely in size, while three years still ended lower.
A Seasonal Gain Does Not Date a Bull Market
Lookonchain’s observation and the monthly return count answer different questions. A monthly gain measures where Bitcoin finishes relative to the previous month’s close; identifying the start of a bull market requires choosing a longer period and a definition of the trend.
A rally that accelerates during October may have begun earlier, and a positive month can be followed by a reversal. The historical count therefore supports October’s reputation without establishing when the current cycle began or how long any future advance might last.
There are only 13 completed annual observations in this sample. The average and median summarize those outcomes; they are not return targets for October 2026 or a calculated probability that this year will repeat them.
ETF Demand and Fed Policy Shape This October
The current market has a measurable source of demand alongside the seasonal narrative. Farside Investors’ flow data show US spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $292.6 million across October 1–2. CoinScreamer’s earlier ETF analysis examined the two positive months that preceded that opening.
Price action has still been uneven. Bitcoin’s Monday $87,000 retest followed Friday’s sharp intraday reversal, showing that renewed demand can coexist with substantial short-term swings.
The Federal Reserve’s next policy meeting is scheduled for October 27–28. Its timing places a major policy decision near the month’s close, as investors weigh the interest-rate outlook alongside fund flows.
October’s historical record gives the bullish argument a clear statistical basis. Whether 2026 adds another positive result will depend on the buying and selling that actually occur this month, with the completed return available only after October ends.
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