Democratic lawmakers Rep. Mike Levin and Sen. Adam Schiff introduced the “Death Bets Act,” seeking to prohibit prediction market contracts tied to war, assassination, and fatalities. The legislation aims to remove Commodity Futures Trading Commission discretion by explicitly banning such contracts, arguing they pose ethical and national security risks.
The bill comes amid growing scrutiny of event-based prediction markets. CFTC Chair Michael Selig is preparing updated guidance for the sector, while platforms have already faced backlash over contracts involving sensitive topics, including the recent removal of a nuclear strike betting contract on Polymarket. Critics have also highlighted potential insider trading risks and public concern over profit incentives linked to violent events.
The Death Bets Act joins other congressional efforts to regulate prediction markets, including proposals limiting access to public officials. Supporters contend that codifying prohibitions will address gaps in the Commodity Exchange Act and ensure that market operations align with ethical and national security considerations.
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