Bitcoin has broken above $85,000 as renewed US buying and forced short covering have put Nansen’s next targets at $87,000 and $90,000, even as large crypto traders remain net short.
Bitcoin’s price has turned bullish faster than positioning among crypto-native traders, creating room for underexposed market participants to chase the rally, according to Nansen Senior Research Analyst Nicolai Sondergaard.
The move above $84,000 appears to have drawn support from renewed exchange-traded fund (ETF) demand and a large short squeeze. However, Hyperliquid’s largest Bitcoin traders remained net short, suggesting major market participants have not fully accepted the recovery. Meanwhile, Nansen recorded net inflows of Bitcoin onto exchanges over two days, raising the available sell-side inventory.
Bitcoin Spot Demand Must Confirm the $85K Breakout
Spot-market signals have strengthened alongside Bitcoin’s advance, offering firmer grounding than a derivatives-led move. ViaBTC Chief Analyst Jeff Ko highlighted that the Coinbase premium returned to positive territory on Friday, signaling stronger buying interest from US investors compared to offshore platforms. Simultaneously, USDT/USD moved closer to its dollar peg, rising from 0.9991 to 0.9998 over the weekend.
The late-week recovery followed macro hurdles earlier in the week. The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4%, while the US Senate failed to advance the CLARITY Act, briefly pushing Bitcoin into the mid-$75,000 range.
Institutional ETF activity mirrored the price rebound. US spot Bitcoin funds experienced $746.3 million in net outflows across Sep. 15 and Sep. 16 before attracting $159.5 million on Sep. 17 and $433 million on Sep. 18. Friday’s inflows were led by $310.7 million into Fidelity’s FBTC and $108.4 million into BlackRock’s IBIT, bringing the five-day net flows to a positive $6.2 million.
Bitcoin Faces Its Next Test at $87K
Following the breakout above $85,000, Sondergaard identified $87,000 as the next key technical level. Clearing $87,000 would bring the psychological $90,000 level into view, followed by potential resistance near $92,000.
Earlier technical indicators signaled improving conditions during Friday’s move. Bitcoin reclaimed its True Market Mean near $76,660 before climbing past $81,300, triggering over $250 million in short liquidations in 24 hours. The 4-hour Supertrend turned bullish near $78,677, while the daily RSI reached 64.48 as price crossed above the middle daily Bollinger Band.
Treasury Yields and Oil Remain Risks for Bitcoin
Macroeconomic factors continue to present risks. Ko pointed to 10-year US Treasury yields near 5%, a firm US dollar, and elevated oil prices above $100 per barrel following recent supply disruptions. Higher yields and sustained inflation concerns could influence Federal Reserve policy expectations.
Traders are also monitoring upcoming US economic data, Fed speaker remarks, and Friday’s quarter-end options expiry for potential volatility.
Beyond Bitcoin, Nansen reported selective interest in yield, lending, and real-world asset (RWA) protocols, though analysts characterize it as a tactical rebound rather than a broader altcoin cycle. Ko noted that the ETH/BTC ratio remains depressed in the low 0.03 range, indicating that sustained altcoin outperformance will likely require a trend reversal in ETH/BTC alongside positive Ether ETF flows.
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