Key Notes
- Bitcoin touched $73,400 on Coinbase in the first five minutes after the CPI release.
- Headline inflation rose more than expected and core prices maintained their previous monthly pace.
- Waller had said a core reading around three-tenths of a percent could justify considering a larger December rate increase.
Bitcoin fell below $74,000 on Tuesday after US consumer-price inflation exceeded expectations, adding to pressure on a market already facing withdrawals from spot exchange-traded funds.
Coinbase trading data show BTC touching $73,400 during the first five minutes after the 13:30 UTC release. That was about 1.2% below the preceding five-minute close of $74,309.
By 14:10 UTC on November 10, Bitcoin was trading near $73,783 on Coinbase’s BTC-USD market. Bitcoin had recovered part of the initial drop, but remained below both $74,000 and its level immediately before the inflation data.
Both Monthly Inflation Readings Exceed Forecasts
The consumer price index rose 0.4% in October, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Tuesday. That slowed from September’s 0.6% increase but exceeded the 0.3% consensus forecast cited in CoinDesk’s inflation preview.
Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.3%, matching the pace in both September and August. Economists had expected a smaller 0.2% rise.
The distinction matters for markets: overall inflation moderated, while underlying price growth failed to deliver the expected improvement. Shelter rose 0.3% and food prices increased 0.5%. Energy costs climbed 0.7%, following September’s much larger 5.2% gain.
The BLS did not publish the usual annual headline and core inflation rates. Most October 2025 index values are unavailable because of last year’s government shutdown, preventing the corresponding 12-month comparisons. That leaves monthly changes as the clearest official comparison in this release.
Waller Puts a Larger December Hike in Focus
Before the release, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he was leaning toward a quarter-percentage-point rate increase in December, even if October inflation improved.
In his Tuesday speech, Waller said a half-point increase should be considered if monthly core CPI remained around 0.3% or higher. October’s result falls within the condition he described. His position is an individual policy view, rather than a decision by the committee.
The Fed’s October statement kept its target range at 3.75%–4.00%. Higher borrowing costs can tighten financial conditions and make interest-bearing assets more competitive with speculative investments, creating a potential headwind for Bitcoin.
Friday’s jobs report had already shown 165,000 additional US jobs and unemployment falling to 4.1%. Those figures give policymakers more evidence of resilient hiring as they weigh how much tightening is needed.
ETF Withdrawals Add to the Backdrop
The inflation release arrived after US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $201.08 million in net outflows on November 9, according to SoSoValue figures reported in our ETF flow coverage. Both Bitcoin and Ether funds had logged three consecutive sessions of net withdrawals.
Bitcoin had already been trading below $75,000 before Tuesday’s data. Its range in the half-hour before the release was roughly $74,119–$74,363 on Coinbase, showing the weakness in place ahead of the inflation surprise.
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