Bitcoin hovered near $77,900 on August 31, 2026, demonstrating relative resilience despite renewed military conflict between the United States and Iran that drove oil prices sharply higher and weighed on global equity markets.
While broader risk assets pulled back following US strikes on Iranian targets, Bitcoin experienced limited immediate downside, trading in a 24-hour range between $77,162 and $79,343.
Middle East Conflict Drives Oil Spike and Equity Pressure
The market turbulence followed confirmed US military strikes against two Iranian rocket launchers on Larak Island. According to US officials, the strikes targeted Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps forces preparing to deploy sea mines in the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian sources reported military and civilian casualties, warning of upcoming retaliation.
Energy markets reacted swiftly to potential supply disruptions in the vital shipping lane.
Brent crude advanced 2.7% to $90.51 per barrel.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose over 2% to trade near $85.23 per barrel.
Asian stock indices declined, Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.5% to 0.7%, and gold dropped 0.8% to $4,418 per ounce.
Despite the broader market contraction, Bitcoin remained steady near $78,000. Altcoins showed slight weakness, with Ether trading near $1,625, XRP slipping 0.8%, and Solana down 0.6%.
August Outperformance Driven by Spot ETF Demand
The resilience at $78,000 capped a strong month for digital assets. Bitcoin gained roughly 23% during August, significantly outperforming gold (9%) and the Nasdaq (4%).
A primary driver behind August’s rally from $63,500 lows was institutional spot ETF buying, which saw $2.8 billion in net inflows across an eight-day streak. However, institutional demand showed brief friction on August 28, recording $201.9 million in single-day net outflows.
Technical indicators reflect solid short-term momentum paired with potential consolidation
Bitcoin is trading near $78,084, comfortably above the $72,471 20-day simple moving average (Bollinger Band midpoint).
Relative Strength Index (RSI) reads at 69.91, approaching overbought territory.
Daily trading volume of roughly 4,200 BTC remains below initial breakout levels, indicating buyers may need increased participation to push past resistance at $79,400–$80,800.
Federal Reserve Stance and Upcoming Employment Catalyst
Macroeconomic headwinds continue to weigh on market sentiment following Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish remarks at the Jackson Hole symposium. Citing elevated inflation alongside steady labor conditions, Warsh signaled that the Federal Open Market Committee may maintain a restrictive posture. Following his speech, Fed funds futures priced the probability of a September interest rate hike at 57% to 60%, up from 35%.
Rising crude oil prices could further complicate the Fed’s inflation trajectory by driving up production and transport costs. Investors are now turning their attention to the US August employment report, scheduled for release on September 4, 2026, which will serve as the next major macro catalyst for interest rate expectations and crypto liquidity.
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