Prediction Markets Surpass $20B Monthly Volume as Geopolitics Drives Growth

Prediction markets exceed $20 billion in monthly volume as geopolitical and political events dominate trading activity.

By Matthew Clarke Published:

Prediction markets have surpassed $20 billion in monthly trading volume for the first time, marking a dramatic rise driven largely by geopolitical and political events. According to a report from TRM Labs, activity has surged from just $1.2 billion in early 2025 to over $20 billion by early 2026, reflecting rapid adoption and shifting user behavior across platforms.

The number of participants has also expanded significantly, with more than 840,000 unique wallets engaging in prediction market trading each month. This represents a sharp increase over a six-month period, highlighting growing mainstream interest in event-based speculation.

A key shift identified in the report is the dominance of geopolitics, macroeconomics, and US political developments as primary drivers of trading volume. These categories have overtaken crypto-native markets, which previously accounted for the majority of activity. Instead of focusing on digital asset prices, traders are increasingly speculating on real-world events such as elections, policy changes, and global conflicts.

Platforms like Polymarket illustrate this transformation. High-volume markets are now centered on geopolitical scenarios, leadership outcomes, and economic policy decisions. US politics remains a major secondary driver, with contracts tied to elections and government actions consistently ranking among the most traded.

The report also highlights how trading behavior varies by user experience. Crypto-related markets make up only a small portion of activity across all user levels, while sports and entertainment markets tend to attract mid-tier traders and more experienced participants rather than newcomers.

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