Bernstein analysts on February 9 reaffirmed their $150,000 Bitcoin price target for 2026, characterizing the recent market downturn as the “weakest bear case” in the asset’s history. In a note to investors, the firm said the pullback reflects a temporary loss of confidence rather than fundamental or structural damage to Bitcoin’s market infrastructure.
The analysts highlighted that Bitcoin has fallen roughly 50% from recent highs without triggering major failures across exchanges, custodians, or settlement systems. They also pointed to relatively modest net outflows of about 7% from spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds, suggesting institutional investors have largely maintained exposure despite heightened volatility.
Liquidity Pressure, Not Structural Stress
Bernstein attributed Bitcoin’s underperformance to tight global liquidity conditions and elevated interest rates, which have favored assets such as gold and large-cap equities linked to artificial intelligence. The firm noted that Bitcoin continues to trade as a liquidity-sensitive risk asset rather than a defensive store of value, leaving it vulnerable during periods of macro-driven deleveraging.
Despite this dynamic, the analysts pushed back on narratives suggesting bigger systemic risks. They dismissed concerns that artificial intelligence investment is structurally diverting capital away from crypto markets, arguing that the two sectors compete primarily for speculative capital during periods of excess liquidity. Bernstein also rejected claims that quantum computing represents a near-term threat to Bitcoin, noting that cryptographic upgrades would occur alongside broader changes across the digital economy.
The report further addressed leverage concerns around large corporate Bitcoin holders. Bernstein said firms such as Strategy rely primarily on long-dated financing structures and retain sufficient liquidity to meet obligations without near-term refinancing pressure.
Institutional Context and Market Implications
Bernstein expects Bitcoin miners to face additional pressure as prices trade below production costs, potentially leading to further supply coming onto the market. However, the analysts framed miner capitulation as a cyclical feature rather than a signal of long-term weakness, particularly in the absence of broader credit stress.
From an institutional perspective, the firm argued that Bitcoin’s core investment thesis remains intact, anchored by increasing integration into regulated financial products and relatively resilient investor behavior during the downturn. While short-term price action may remain constrained by macro conditions, Bernstein said the lack of forced selling and limited ETF redemptions points to underlying market stability.
The analysts maintained that Bitcoin is likely to revisit record highs as financial conditions eventually ease and risk appetite returns. While acknowledging near-term uncertainty, Bernstein reiterated its conviction that the current sell-off does not constitute a structural bear market, but rather a confidence-driven reset within a maturing asset class.
