BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes said he would not currently invest in Bitcoin, citing uncertainty tied to global macroeconomic conditions and US monetary policy. Speaking on the Coin Stories podcast, Hayes said he would prefer to wait before allocating capital to the digital asset.
Hayes argued that Bitcoin’s strongest rallies have historically coincided with periods of aggressive monetary easing by central banks. In his view, a shift toward money printing or broader liquidity injections by the US Federal Reserve would create a more favorable environment for digital assets. Until such conditions emerge, he said he would remain on the sidelines.
Bitcoin was trading around $69,900 at the time of the interview, roughly 45% below its October all-time high near $126,000. Hayes noted that continued geopolitical tensions and broader financial market stress could push prices lower in the near term.
Geopolitical Risks and Liquidity Dynamics
Hayes linked his cautious stance partly to rising geopolitical tensions involving the United States and Iran. He suggested that prolonged conflict could trigger broader sell-offs across risk assets, including equities and cryptocurrencies. Such a scenario could create additional volatility before any potential recovery driven by monetary stimulus.
According to Hayes, some investors believe geopolitical conflict itself benefits Bitcoin. He disagrees with that framing, arguing instead that liquidity expansion – particularly through central bank balance sheet growth – has historically been the more important driver of crypto market rallies.
Long-Term Bitcoin Thesis Remains
Despite his near-term caution, Hayes reiterated his long-term bullish outlook for Bitcoin. He previously predicted the asset could reach $250,000 and has maintained that projection in several public appearances. At the same time, he acknowledged uncertainty about whether the current market cycle has already reached its price bottom.
Hayes suggested that if broader financial markets experience a sharp downturn, Bitcoin could temporarily fall below $60,000 before stabilizing. However, he emphasized that such volatility would likely be cyclical rather than structural.
He also noted that he does not expect Bitcoin to remain below the $100,000 level indefinitely, suggesting that the long-term trajectory of the asset remains tied to global liquidity conditions and the evolving role of digital assets within the financial system.