Citigroup has reduced its 12-month price targets for Bitcoin and Ether, citing weaker onchain activity and slower progress on digital asset legislation in the United States. The Wall Street bank now forecasts Bitcoin reaching $112,000 over the next year, down from a previous estimate of $143,000.
Ether’s revised target stands at $3,175, compared with Citi’s earlier projection of $4,304. Despite the downgrade, both forecasts still imply notable upside from current market levels.
At the time of publication, Bitcoin was trading near $74,000 while Ether hovered around $2,330. The bank said crypto markets have struggled to regain momentum following Bitcoin’s surge to record highs in October.
Analysts noted that risk appetite has weakened in recent months, with prices drifting lower as enthusiasm following the Bitcoin halving faded. Futures liquidations and declining speculative positioning have also contributed to a more subdued trading environment.
ETF Inflows Remain the Key Market Driver
While price expectations have been lowered, Citigroup said demand through exchange-traded funds remains the most significant potential catalyst for the crypto market. The bank now estimates that Bitcoin ETFs could attract about $10 billion in inflows over the next year.
Ether ETFs are projected to draw around $2.5 billion over the same period. These figures represent reduced assumptions compared with Citi’s previous forecasts but still highlight the growing role of institutional investment products in digital asset markets.
ETF demand has shown resilience despite broader macroeconomic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions. According to the bank, these inflows have helped stabilize crypto prices even as trading volumes and onchain activity have softened.
Institutional participation through regulated investment vehicles has become a central pillar of the current market structure. Analysts say continued flows into these products could help offset weaker retail demand and declining speculative trading.
Regulatory Clarity Seen as Key Institutional Catalyst
Citigroup emphasized that the outlook for digital assets remains closely tied to regulatory developments in the United States. Analysts said the window for passing comprehensive crypto legislation this year is narrowing, with market-implied odds now around 60 percent.
The CLARITY Act, a major market structure bill designed to define regulatory oversight for digital assets, has passed the US House of Representatives but remains stalled in the Senate. Lawmakers are continuing negotiations on competing proposals, leaving the legislation’s timeline uncertain.
The bill is considered critical because it would clarify how digital assets are classified and determine whether the Securities and Exchange Commission or the Commodity Futures Trading Commission holds primary oversight. That clarity could significantly reduce regulatory risk for institutional investors.
Citigroup’s base case suggests Bitcoin may continue trading in a range in the near term, with $70,000 acting as an important psychological level. In a bullish scenario driven by stronger adoption and ETF inflows, the bank sees Bitcoin reaching $165,000 and Ether $4,488. In a bearish macro environment, targets fall to $58,000 for Bitcoin and $1,198 for Ether.
