The International Monetary Fund’s December 2025 report cautions that USD-pegged stablecoins could facilitate currency substitution and capital outflows in emerging markets, potentially weakening local currencies and central bank control. According to IMF, stablecoins could bypass traditional capital flow management measures, allowing transactions outside established financial intermediaries.
Despite these concerns, experts argue that the stablecoin market remains too small to produce systemic macroeconomic effects. The combined market capitalization of major stablecoins, including USDT and USDC, stands near $264 billion, a fraction of global foreign exchange flows and the US dollar’s entrenched role in the financial system. Most stablecoins continue to serve primarily as on-ramps for crypto trading rather than broad-based treasury tools.
Emerging markets, particularly in Africa, the Middle East, Latin America, and the Caribbean, account for notable stablecoin inflows relative to GDP. However, these flows remain a small portion of the overall global payments ecosystem, limiting immediate macroeconomic disruption despite the theoretical risk outlined by the IMF.
