Jump Trading is preparing to take equity stakes in prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket in exchange for providing market-making services. While financial terms have not been disclosed, the arrangement would see Jump supply liquidity to both platforms while receiving a fixed equity position in Kalshi and the ability to increase its ownership in Polymarket over time.
The reported deals would tie one of the most prominent proprietary trading firms in digital assets more closely to the prediction market sector, which has seen rapid growth following regulatory shifts in the United States. Both Kalshi and Polymarket have benefited from a more permissive stance by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which has eased restrictions on event-based contracts that were previously treated as prohibited binary options.
Institutional Liquidity Meets Prediction Markets
Market makers play a central role in financial markets by providing continuous buy and sell quotes, supporting price discovery, and reducing volatility during periods of uneven demand. Jump Trading’s involvement could materially improve liquidity and execution quality on both platforms, which have experienced sharp increases in trading volume since late 2025.
Kalshi and Polymarket are currently the two largest players in the sector by activity and valuation. Polymarket was last valued at approximately $9 billion, while Kalshi has reached an estimated valuation of $11 billion. Both platforms have also pursued partnerships with traditional institutions, including media and sports organizations, as they compete to establish themselves as the dominant venue for event-based financial contracts.
At the same time, competition is intensifying. Crypto exchanges such as Gemini and Crypto.com have begun rolling out rival prediction-style products, increasing pressure on standalone platforms to differentiate through liquidity, regulatory positioning, and institutional participation.
Strategic Context for Jump Trading
For Jump Trading, the reported investments signal a measured re-engagement with crypto-adjacent markets after a period of retrenchment. The firm scaled back parts of its digital asset operations following the collapse of Terra, one of its high-profile investments. Since then, Jump has continued to support infrastructure-focused initiatives, including development work on the Firedancer client for Solana and the Wormhole cross-chain bridge.
Providing liquidity to prediction markets aligns with Jump’s core competencies as a high-frequency trading firm while limiting direct exposure to directional crypto price risk. Equity stakes offer longer-term upside tied to platform growth, rather than short-term trading performance alone.
From a broader market perspective, Jump’s involvement underscores the increasing institutionalization of prediction markets. As regulatory clarity improves and participation expands beyond crypto-native users, liquidity provision and risk management are becoming more critical to platform stability. The reported arrangements suggest that established trading firms view prediction markets as a durable segment of the financial ecosystem rather than a niche experiment.
If finalized, the deals would further blur the line between traditional market structure and crypto-enabled financial products, reinforcing prediction markets’ role as a convergence point for trading, data, and institutional capital.