The probability of the United States enacting comprehensive crypto market structure legislation this year is slipping. Digital asset financial services firm Galaxy Digital has officially downgraded its odds for the passage of the CLARITY Act in 2026 to 60%, a sharp drop from its optimistic 75% projection maintained in late May.
According to Galaxy’s research team, the legislative window is rapidly shutting as Congress faces an incredibly tight floor calendar ahead of the upcoming November midterm elections.
The Race Against the August Recess
The primary obstacle facing the bill is time. For the CLARITY Act to become law, Senate Majority Leader John Thune must clear floor time to debate the bill, navigate a complex amendment process, reconcile the text with a competing Senate Agriculture Committee draft, and secure a final vote before the month-long August recess begins in late July.
Historically, major controversial legislation fails to move in the late summer and autumn of an election year, as lawmakers pivot their focus entirely toward re-election campaigns.
“For a 60-vote bill that still needs floor debate, an amendment process, reconciliation with the Senate Agriculture text, and then House action on the changes, Majority Leader Thune realistically needs to schedule floor time at some point in July,” explained Alex Thorn, Head of Research at Galaxy Digital. “Anything later and the procedural steps do not fit before the recess.”
Institutional Skepticism Mounts
Galaxy is not alone in its cautious outlook. A growing wave of institutional analysts and Washington insiders are expressing doubt that a divided Congress can cross the finish line before the clock runs out.
Lingering policy disagreements regarding congressional ethics and decentralized illicit finance guardrails remain major sticking points that lawmakers have yet to resolve.
| Institution / Source | Estimated Probability | Core Rationalization |
| Galaxy Digital | 60% (Down from 75%) | Severe calendar compression; unresolved floor amendment conflicts. |
| JPMorgan | Under 50% | Tightening congressional schedule ahead of the November midterms. |
| Bitwise (via DC Insiders) | 5% to 30% | Extreme pessimism from political insiders regarding pre-election consensus. |
Standing at the 5-Yard Line
Despite the downgrades from research desks, key political champions of the digital asset sector are maintaining an aggressive public push. Senator Cynthia Lummis, Chair of the Senate Banking Subcommittee on Digital Assets, has escalated her advocacy, urging leadership to bring the bill to an immediate floor vote.
“The Clarity Act passed committee. The floor is next. We did not come this far to quit at the 5-yard line,” Lummis stated on social media.
Lummis confirmed that lawmakers are actively working behind the scenes to iron out the specific illicit finance and ethics provisions that threaten to derail a full floor vote. However, unless Senate leaders formally commit to dedicating scarce legislative days to the bill in July, the market structure framework faces the distinct possibility of dying in committee before the year concludes.
