Binance founder Changpeng Zhao (CZ) announced the introduction Predict.fun, a new BNB Chain native prediction market that allows users to earn yield on funds while positions remain open. The platform, created by a former Binance employee, reflects a broader industry push to reduce the opportunity cost of capital in forecasting markets.
Welcome a new prediction market on @BNBChain.
When you make a prediction, you funds don't sit idle, they generate yield.Disclaimer:
Founder is ex-Binance (a few years ago).
Incubated/invested by YZiLabs.
This tweet is not endorsement. 🙏 https://t.co/E0fxxKc3eE— CZ 🔶 BNB (@cz_binance) December 3, 2025
Major venues such as Polymarket and Kalshi have already introduced points programs, staking rewards, and treasury incentives to attract users holding long-duration positions. These mechanisms aim to solve a core inefficiency: traders must traditionally lock up capital for weeks or months without any return, even though outcomes are uncertain.
Predict.fun currently lists only two markets with a combined volume of about 300,000 dollars. The platform reports more than 12,000 users and nearly 300,000 total bets. While meaningful for an early-stage product, these numbers sit far below the scale of established competitors. Polymarket has surpassed 3 billion dollars in cumulative volume, while Kalshi stands near 587 million dollars. Smaller entrants like Limitless have cleared roughly 10.9 million dollars.
Network Advantages and Structural Constraints
Predict.fun’s launch aligns with BNB Chain’s recent momentum. The chain leads the industry in active wallets, and its active address count has nearly doubled over the past year, according to onchain analytics. Token Terminal estimates BNB Chain’s market share of active users at around 25%, providing a broad distribution channel for new applications.
However, liquidity depth remains a limiting factor. BNB Chain continues to lag major networks in stablecoin issuance, which reduces the available base of risk capital for prediction markets. Stablecoins are critical for maintaining tight spreads, higher trade volumes, and rapid settlement, all of which underpin liquidity-sensitive markets like forecasting platforms.
These structural realities may constrain growth even with a large user base. Historically, new prediction markets see inflows during promotional or incentives-driven periods but struggle to retain sustained volume once rewards normalize. Liquidity tends to concentrate around the largest venues, where deeper pools and more active markets reinforce user engagement.
A Narrow Path to Competitive Scale
The near-term test for Predict.fun is whether it can surpass other emerging platforms and maintain consistent activity. Limitless, with roughly an order of magnitude more cumulative volume, offers a more attainable benchmark than the dominant pair of Polymarket and Kalshi. BNB Chain’s reach may provide an early distribution advantage, but the liquidity gap relative to leading stablecoin-heavy networks remains a meaningful hurdle.
The trajectory of Predict.fun will depend on whether it can convert user traffic into durable liquidity and market depth. In a sector where liquidity advantages compound quickly, scale is difficult to manufacture through incentives alone.