Despite aggressively accumulating 4.37% of the total Ethereum supply, BitMine’s corporate treasury strategy is under severe pressure. With ETH down over 57% from its late-2025 peak, the firm risks facing more than $10 billion in paper losses if key market support levels collapse. Tom Lee’s BitMine is currently staring down approximately $7.3 billion in paper losses on its corporate Ethereum treasury. The massive drawdown comes as traders navigate a worsening fundamental outlook for Ether (ETH), driven by persistent exchange-traded fund (ETF) outflows, high-profile ecosystem departures, and a highly bearish technical chart setup.
Aggressive Accumulation Amid a 57% Drawdown
BitMine initiated its ambitious Ethereum treasury strategy in July 2025, shortly after securing a $250 million private placement. By mid-July of that year, the firm held 163,142 ETH. Instead of halting purchases as the market turned, BitMine accelerated its buying spree throughout the downturn.
As of this week, BitMine holds an astounding 5.28 million ETH, representing roughly 4.37% of the total circulating supply, making it the world’s largest publicly traded Ether treasury.
The strategy has been costly in the short term. Ether has plummeted over 57% since its October 2025 peak of nearly $4,955, steadily eroding the asset’s overall market dominance from 15% down to roughly 10%. With an average purchase price of $3,513, the firm is deep in the red.
Despite the staggering $7.3 billion deficit, Lee has refused to abandon the strategy. In February, he characterized the severe drawdown as a prime buying opportunity, pointing to Ethereum’s historical tendency to post V-shaped recoveries following 50%-plus corrections. While BitMine announced in May that it would slightly moderate the pace of its acquisitions, it remains fully committed to its goal of owning 5% of the total Ethereum supply by December 2026.
Technical Warning Signs and the $10 Billion Risk
If ETH’s prevailing bearish market structure plays out, BitMine’s unrealized losses could soon swell past the $10 billion mark.
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Bearish case: ETH is currently hovering perilously close to the lower trend line of a rising wedge. A confirmed breakdown below this critical support could trigger a sharp 25% drop, dragging prices down toward the $1,600 area by July or August. Under this scenario, BitMine’s paper losses would balloon to nearly $10.1 billion.
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Bullish case: Conversely, if buyers defend the lower boundary, a decisive rebound could spark a 19% to 20% rally toward $2,530, aligning with the wedge’s upper resistance and the 200-day exponential moving average.
Dead Money and Shifting Sentiment
Ethereum is battling severe headwinds outside of the charts. According to on-chain data platform Santiment, social media sentiment surrounding ETH deteriorated sharply throughout May. The ratio of bullish to bearish comments collapsed from above 2:1 in late April to a neutral 1:1 ratio today.
“Crypto traders tend to become highly emotional during periods of underperformance,” Santiment analysts noted in a recent report, highlighting that a growing segment of the market increasingly views ETH as dead money when compared to other high-beta layer-1 assets that have demonstrated much stronger relative momentum throughout 2026.
