Bitcoin was largely absent from the traditional year-end Santa rally, even as US equities and precious metals pushed to fresh record highs. The largest cryptocurrency traded near $87,200 on December 26, down roughly 6.5% from its 2025 opening level and well below its October peak above $126,000. Price action remained muted through the holiday week, reflecting reduced risk appetite and thinning liquidity across crypto markets.
Near-term trading has been dominated by derivatives positioning, with market participants focused on a record $28 billion crypto options expiry. Analysts said large expiries can magnify price swings in low-volume conditions, reinforcing a defensive tone. US spot Bitcoin ETFs mirrored this caution, recording roughly $500 million in net outflows over the week and extending a two-month stretch that has seen more than $4 billion withdrawn.
Precious Metals Capture Defensive Flows
While Bitcoin struggled, traditional safe havens outperformed sharply. Gold climbed above $4,580 per troy ounce, while silver surged past $75, setting new all-time highs. Analysts attributed the rally to a weaker US dollar, ongoing geopolitical tensions, and year-end liquidity effects that amplified moves in futures and physical markets.
Institutional demand has also played a role, with central-bank purchases and ETF inflows supporting prices. Expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 have further boosted non-yielding assets, reinforcing gold and silver’s appeal as portfolio hedges. Silver’s gains were compounded by speculative inflows and lingering supply tightness following an October short squeeze.
Equities Maintain Momentum into Year-End
US equities remained resilient into the final trading days of the year. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the shortened Christmas Eve session at record highs, extending a rally that has lifted major indexes throughout December. The S&P 500 is up about 18% year-to-date, while the Nasdaq has gained more than 20%.
The divergence highlights a broader allocation shift as investors favor assets with clearer earnings visibility and macro tailwinds. For Bitcoin, the lack of a Santa rally underscores its growing sensitivity to derivatives flows and institutional positioning, even as traditional markets continue to benefit from supportive liquidity conditions and year-end portfolio adjustments.